Should the Accident-prone Osprey Be Permanently Grounded in Japan?
Able to take off and land like a helicopter but fly at the speed of a fixed-wing aircraft, the Osprey is extremely versatile, but its troubled safety record is the source of much concern.
What’s new: Earlier this month, U.S. officials told their Japanese counterparts that the controversial Osprey would soon begin flying again in Japan, starting around March 8, 2024. However, it was not until the early hours of March 14 that an Osprey took off from the U.S. military base at Futenma in Ginowan City, Okinawa. It was the first time since November 29, 2023, when a fatal crash off the coast of Yakushima Island in Kagoshima killed eight people. The plane that crashed belonged to the U.S. Yokota Air Base in Tokyo. On the day of the accident, that plane was en route to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa via Iwakuni Air Base in Yamaguchi. After the accident, the U.S. stopped flying its entire fleet of Osprey aircraft around the world.
The first Osprey flight of 2024 took place over the densely populated capital city of Okinawa and other areas of the archipelago, reigniting fears and some protests in Japan over the use of the dicey aircraft, which has an unusually high crash rate.
Context: While an extraordinarily versatile aircraft, the Osprey's troubled safety record, which has led to protests in Japan, has caused many to question whether it is worth the cost and perceived risk to the public.
What Is the Osprey? The Osprey is an American-made multi-mission tiltrotor military aircraft with both vertical takeoff and landing (VTOL) and short takeoff and landing (STOL) capabilities. It is designed to combine the functionality of a conventional helicopter for transporting combat troops with the long-range, high-speed cruise performance of a turboprop aircraft1.
Why and When Was the Osprey Developed? The roots of the Osprey aircraft can be traced back to the failed Operation Eagle Claw in 1980 during the Iran hostage crisis. At the time, there was a need for a hybrid aircraft that would combine the functionality of both a conventional helicopter and a fixed-wing airplane. In 1981, the U.S. Department of Defense began a program to develop a new type of transport aircraft with long-range, high-speed and vertical takeoff capabilities. A partnership between Bell Helicopter and Boeing Helicopters was awarded a contract in 1983 to develop the first V-22 tiltrotor aircraft, which first got off the ground in 19892.
Is the Osprey Safe? The Osprey has had numerous accidents over the years, and ongoing concerns about perceived safety issues linger just below the surface. Including the November 29, 2023 crash in Japan, the CV-22 Osprey3 has had 16 hull-loss accidents with a total of 62 fatalities4.
Go Deeper: According to the latest accident statistics data from the U.S. Air Force Safety Center, the "Class A" serious accident rate (number of accidents per 100,000 flight hours) of the CV-22 Osprey, the same U.S. Air Force specification as the aircraft that crashed off Yakushima, Kagoshima Prefecture, was 6.00. This accident rate is extremely high compared to the 1.35 for manned aircraft and 2.58 for unmanned aircraft for the entire U.S. Air Force as of September 2023.
In addition, the number of CV-22 Class A accidents has trended upward over the past 20 years. Class A accidents are those that result in damage to the aircraft at a cost of more than $2.5 million per 100,000 flight hours, or result in the death or permanent disability of the crew. The number of Class B accidents is also increasing. Class B accidents are defined as those that cause more than $600,000 but less than $2.5 million in damage or result in disabling injuries. The most recent Class B crash rate was 2.00.
The U.S. Marine Corps' Okinawa MV-22 Osprey5 introductory website, titled "MV-22 OSPREY," states that "the MV-22 is safe" and emphasizes that the Class A accident rate since 2010 has been 3.27 per 100,000 flight hours, which is on par with other Marine Corps military aircraft. In addition, an accident report released in July 2023, following the June 2022 crash of an MV-22 in the California desert that killed five squadron members, states that the average Class A accident rate for the MV-22 over the past 10 years was 3.16 per 100,000 flight hours. This is on par with the average accident rate of 3.1 for all U.S. Marine Corps military aircraft, including the AV-8B and F/A-18A-C fighter-attack aircraft, the F-35B stealth fighter, the CH-53E heavy-lift helicopter, and the KC-130J aerial refueling tanker.
However, according to Flightfax, an online aviation safety magazine published by the U.S. Army Combat Readiness Center, the serious accident rate for manned aircraft operated by the U.S. Army was 1.62 as of November 2023, compared to the Osprey's serious accident rate (6.00 for the CV-22 and 3.16 for the MV-22), which remains high.
In addition, the Japan’s Ministry of Defense has often compared the Osprey to the conventional CH47 transport helicopter of the Ground Self-Defense Force in terms of basic performance, noise, etc. According to a Flightfax memo issued in January 2021, the Class A accident rate for H47 series helicopters, including the CH47, was only 1.29, which is much lower than the Osprey's accident rate.
Yes, but: It is still unclear what happened during the crash on November 29, 2023. According to eyewitness accounts, several bystanders reported that the engine caught fire. A fisherman named Kosaku Hirata, 68, said he was fishing on the beach about 400 meters (about 1,300 feet) from the crash site when he saw an Osprey flying toward Yakushima Airport.
"I thought it was an emergency landing. I always fish in the same spot, and the course was the same as that of commercial airliners, which I often see. The plane was at or just below 300 meters (about 1,000 feet) above the ground. The propeller was pointing diagonally forward, and the aircraft was in a sort of 'conversion mode' between 'airplane mode' and 'helicopter mode.' It was flying quietly, but suddenly its attitude became erratic. Before I knew it, the airplane turned 180 degrees sideways with the left side of the fuselage up, into a dorsal flight configuration. A few seconds later I heard a dry bang and the left side propeller area exploded and caught fire. The propeller blew off into the distance and the fuselage fell into the sea". - Local eyewitness to the November 2023 crash
About 15 minutes before the crash, the pilot made an emergency request to the Kagoshima Airport Office to land at nearby Yakushima Airport. The Osprey has engines mounted on both wings, and even if one fails, it is possible to fly and land with only the remaining operable engine.
"At the stage when the pilot communicated with the airport office, he may have sensed an abnormality, but it was still only at the level of 'emergency landing is possible.' After that, the situation must have suddenly deteriorated." - aviation critic Kenji Aoki
However, it is still not entirely clear whether the pilot intended to follow through with his request for an emergency landing.
"If the eyewitness reports are true, the altitude was appropriate for the final approach to Yakushima Airport. Considering the location of the crash, the flight was under control until just before the accident. An emergency landing should not have been considered. - Atsushi Tsubota, aviation journalist
There are many theories about what caused the crash, but very little information has been released to the public.
"There are various possibilities for engine trouble, such as fuel system or electrical system failure, shaft damage, or being hit by a foreign object. It is possible that the left engine had some kind of malfunction and lost balance while in 'conversion mode,' which changes the angle of the propeller. If the speed and power of the two blades are different, the airplane will tip and eventually roll over. It is also possible that fuel backflow or other problems may have exacerbated the problem at that time.” - Atsushi Tsubota, aviation journalist
The U.S. military has not yet released an official cause of the accident and may never do so.
Why it matters: The U.S. military presence in Japan is significant, with approximately 50,000 personnel stationed at 85 installations. While both diplomatic relations and bilateral military-to-military cooperation remain strong, especially in the face of increasingly aggressive actions by China and North Korea, from time to time a specific incident, such as altercations or more serious crimes involving U.S. soldiers and some of the local residents living near the bases, tends to complicate U.S.-Japan relations. In addition, lingering fears about safety have caused tensions to flare from time to time.
"I'm afraid the Osprey might fall on my child's school." - A mother in Ginowan City, Okinawa
Residents living near bases where Ospreys have been deployed are unlikely to have their fears allayed any time soon. Especially in Okinawa, there have been several demonstrations against the use of the Osprey in the past. After the latest Osprey crash, the resumption of flights may well spark new protests.
Particularly because the U.S. military has simply asked the Japanese public to take its word that the Osprey is safe to fly without disclosing the cause of the latest accident, local government officials in Ginowan City, Okinawa and Kagoshima Prefecture have expressed concern and opposition.
The U.S. military's decision to get its own Ospreys back in the air also has a direct impact on Japan's own ability to defend itself by deploying these aircraft. The Ground Self-Defense Force has provisionally deployed 14 Japanese-owned CV-22 Osprey aircraft to the Kisarazu Garrison in Chiba. A total of 17 aircraft will eventually be deployed (3 are currently on order).
Commentary: While both the U.S. military and the Ground Self-Defense Force in Japan need to be more transparent about what is being done to ensure safety, I fall on the side of keeping the controversial aircraft in service. Its tactical capabilities seem tailor-made for the defense of the Japanese archipelago, and the Osprey is a useful tool in deterring potential aggression in and around Japan by China and North Korea.
What's next: According to the Ministry of Defense, the U.S. military has a total of 29 Osprey aircraft deployed in Japan, 5 Air Force and 24 Marine, not including the aircraft that crashed off Yakushima Island in Kagoshima last November. The Air Force’s fleet is based at Yokota Air Base in Tokyo, while the Marines’ aircraft are based at Futenma Air Base in Okinawa Prefecture. In addition, three Navy aircraft will be deployed from outside Japan to Kadena Air Base in Okinawa Prefecture.
Japan's Ministry of Defense has pushed for the Osprey's introduction, citing its speed for remote island defense and disaster relief and its highly mobile deployment capability. However, the Osprey's aerodynamic design is more complex than existing rotorcraft, and its accident rate remains high which often leads to forced groundings. Regardless of the aircraft's high performance in terms of maximum speed and range, its advantages will be diminished if it is frequently grounded.
The high cost of more than 10 billion yen (about $67 million) per aircraft and frequent groundings are the main reasons why Japan is the only country other than the U.S. that has decided to adopt the Osprey. Countries that had previously expressed interest in acquiring the Osprey, such as Australia, Indonesia, and Israel, ultimately decided not to acquire the aircraft. In addition, the United States Army has not adopted the Osprey.
In June 2023, an overseas air defense news site reported that the U.S. Boeing plant that produces airframes and key equipment for the CV-22 is scheduled to close in 2026 due to a lack of orders from the U.S. Department of Defense.
In the immediate future, the Ground Self-Defense Force in Japan has decided to resume flights. According to the Defense Ministry, 12 Ground Self-Defense Force Osprey aircraft are currently stationed at the Kisarazu Garrison in Chiba, and one each at the Medabaru Garrison in Saga and the Takayubaru Garrison in Kumamoto. For the time being, the aircraft will fly in the vicinity of each garrison, and after the necessary proficiency is regained, the ministry will consider whether to expand the flight area.
The Defense Ministry plans to move the Ground Self-Defense Force's Osprey aircraft to a new garrison to be established next year on the west side of Saga Airport, and so far there has been no change in this plan.
What do you think? The Osprey tends to stir up relatively strong opinions in Japan. Given the capabilities of this very special aircraft, the amount of money both countries have already invested in the program, and its role as a key tactical tool in Japan's defense - especially relative to the geopolitical threat posed by China and North Korea - many are willing to overlook the Osprey's historically high accident rate. It's a tough call, but what do you think? All responses are completely anonymous, even to the author.
Links to Japanese Sources: https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/easy/k10014389941000/k10014389941000.html, https://www.tokyo-np.co.jp/article/294236, https://news.yahoo.co.jp/pickup/6494677, https://www3.nhk.or.jp/news/html/20240313/k10014389851000.html, and https://news.yahoo.co.jp/expert/articles/d73c22f171e1ea88e03ec7db432b807fb936d744.
#osprey #crashlanding #Okinawa #USAirforce #verticaltakeoffandlanding #shorttakeoffandlanding #VTOL #STOL #オスプレイ #沖縄 #米空軍 #オスプレイ墜落 #垂直離着陸輸送機 #米軍
Wikipedia
Wikipedia
The version of the Osprey used by the U.S. Air Force.
Wikipedia
The version of the Osprey customized to meet the needs of the U.S. Marine Corp.
Well said and well written. Loved your commentary, too.
Thank you for this article! I guess the accident rate per se is not the root of the worries, even though it's undoubtably high. Ospreys are based at a US base in England, and I couldn't find any negative stories about them, rather they seem to be admired. The population density of Okinawa, especially around Futenma is much higher than eastern England. As allies during World War 2, the relationship between the US and UK is different than that between Japan and the US too.
https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/23731758.us-airforce-osprey-helicopters-fly-fakenham-norfolk/
The one negative story I could find about Ospreys in England:
https://www.cambridge-news.co.uk/news/cambridge-news/addenbrookes-hospital-helipad-damage-helicopter-20444102