Japanese to Get “on the Road Again”
Japan's annual pilgrimage home for the New Year's holidays is almost back to pre-Covid levels.
What’s new: Japan's leading travel agency, Japan Travel Bureau (JTB), has compiled travel trends for the New Year's holiday period (December 23, 2023 - January 3, 2024), targeting those who will travel for one night or more, based on various economic indicators, industry trends, transportation company movements, hotel reservations, and various surveys of travelers. The total number of travelers was estimated at 28.58 million (105.0% year-on-year, 95.0% of 2019 results).
Why it matters: While travel volumes are expected to rebound nearly to pre-Covid levels, the forecast for this year's New Year's travel season1 remains slightly lower than 2019 due to the less favorable holiday day schedule and the possibility that many will postpone travel until the three-day weekend of January 6-82, 2024.
Context: New Year's travel is a deeply rooted tradition in Japanese culture, with millions of people embarking on journeys to celebrate and spend time with loved ones. Visiting shrines and temples on January 1st, a practice called hatsumode (初詣) in Japanese, to pray for good fortune and prosperity is an important part of the New Year celebrations. New Year's provides an opportunity for families to reunite and participate in traditional activities such as sharing special meals, playing games, and watching the first sunrise of the year. Along with "Golden Week," a series of national holidays at the end of April and first week of May, the extended New Year's holiday allows people to travel without worrying about work or school obligations. Travel agencies like JTB often offer special discounts and packages during the holiday season, making travel more affordable for many people, but overall prices tend to peak at this time of year.
By the numbers: While not quite back to pre-Covid levels, it appears at this point that there will be strong demand for both domestic and international travel.
Solid Domestic Demand: The number of domestic travelers is estimated at 28 million (95% of 2019), 103.7% of the previous year. According to the survey, the most popular purpose of domestic travel was "spending time with family" (35.7%). This was followed by "relaxing and taking it easy" (27.3%) and "returning home" (26.3%). As for the number of days traveled, "2 days and 1 night" (32.3%) was the most popular choice, but this was down 3.3 points from the previous year. "3 days and 2 nights” (27.6%) was also down by 1.0 point.
On the other hand, the 3-night/4-day and 6-night/7-day categories were all up from last year.
The most common type of travel companion was "family with children (up to junior high school age)" (24.9%), followed by "alone" (19.9%). Compared to the previous year, "family and friends/acquaintances" (9.6%) increased by 3.4 points. "Kanto3 (24.7%) was the most popular destination, followed by Kinki4 (16.2%) and Tokai5 (11.7%).
High Cost of Domestic Travel: The average cost of domestic travel is expected to rise 110.8% year-on-year to 41,000 yen or approximately US$283 (128.1% year on year), a record high, due to rising travel-related costs caused by high prices, growing travel demand, a recovery in inbound travel, and labor shortages in the service industry. In addition, total domestic travel consumption is estimated at 1.148 trillion yen or $7.9 billion, 114.9% of the previous year's total (122.6% of 2019 levels). The total cost of travel per person was 20,000-30,000 yen or $138 ~ $207 (20.4%), up 1.7 points from the previous year, followed by 10,000-20,000 yen or $69 ~ $138 (18.8%). 40,000 yen or more (>$276) was up 4.3 points from last year. Western-style hotels (47%) were the most popular choice of accommodation, followed by "staying with parents or relatives" (37.0%) and "staying at a ryokan or traditional Japanese inn" (19.9%).
Domestic Reservations: Reservations for JTB's lodging and domestic planning products were up 115% year-on-year as of December 4, 2012. Tokyo, including Tokyo Disney Resort, and Kansai, including Universal Studios Japan, are performing particularly well.
Explosive Growth for Overseas Travel but Still behind Pre-Covid Levels: The number of overseas travelers is estimated to increase to 580,000, 260.1% of the previous year's figure (70.1% of the 2019 level). Overseas travelers seem to fall into two distinct groups. On the one hand, there are those planning to take relatively short trips to nearby destinations in Asia. These people tend to be concerned about high overseas prices, the weak yen, and increased fuel surcharges. However, there remains a large segment that is willing to spend extra money on longer vacations to destinations in far-flung Europe or perennial favorite Hawaii. Some would-be international travelers have, however, serious concerns.
"I would like to go overseas if there were no security or health problems (various infectious diseases, etc.)." - Cited by 18.4% of respondents.
Cost remains the top concern.
Overseas Travelers Will Either Spend a Lot or a Little: The average cost of overseas travel is estimated at 222,000 yen or $1,532, 92.1% of the previous year's level (109.9% of 2019 actuals). Total overseas travel consumption is estimated at 128.8 billion yen or $889 million, 239.6% of the previous year's level (77.1% of 2019). Japan's recently devalued currency seems to be dampening demand to some extent. For Japanese, the weaker yen makes shopping and dining abroad more expensive.
"Travel costs are more than double what they were before the coronavirus pandemic." - Eijiro Yamakita, President of JTB
Many respondents were not shy about sharing this sentiment.
"I can't go abroad even if I want to because of the weak yen and high prices." - Cited by 17.0% of respondents
Similar to the two distinct cohorts among those planning to travel domestically, international travelers plan to spend either a little or a lot. Compared to the same period in 2019, the segment of travelers who plan to spend "less than ¥50,000 or $345" increased by 10.99 percentage points, while the total of those who plan to spend “more than ¥200,000 or $1,380” also increased by 7.3 percentage points. The total estimated value of international travel spending is expected to be 10.99 points higher than in 2019.
International Reservations: JTB reported that as of December 4, bookings for their overseas products were 640% of the previous year's total. Rival tour operator HIS also reported that bookings to nearby Asian destinations such as Seoul and Taipei, as well as Cairns, Australia, where low-cost carriers (LCCs) operate, were among the top destinations. Honolulu, which was, undoubtedly, the number one destination prior to Covid, has dropped to third place due to the relatively high cost of travel to this perennial Japanese favorite.
Meanwhile: As Japanese prepare to pack their bags for the upcoming New Year's holiday, Japan's hotels and attractions are being overrun by near record numbers of foreign travelers.
While data are only available through October 2023, there has been a dramatic year-over-year increase in overseas visitors to Japan (from just over 1.5 million during the same period in 2022 to nearly 20 million so far in 2023, an increase of more than 18 million or 1,202%).
While these results may seem impressive, the number of visitors to Japan is still well below pre-Covid levels, when nearly 27 million visitors came to Japan in the first 10 months of 2019. Nonetheless, the rebound in foreign visitors is readily apparent to anyone in Tokyo or Kyoto, in particular, and trends suggest that more and more visitors will come in the coming months.
What’s next: Although this holiday is actually only celebrated in the small number of Chinatowns scattered throughout Japan (mainly Yokohama, Kobe, and Nagasaki), as a public holiday in China, Chinese New Year, which is based on the lunar year, is when most businesses in China will be closed for 7 days from February 9 ~ 15, 2024. On a much larger scale than in Japan, tens of millions of Chinese will make their annual pilgrimage home to visit relatives and celebrate the upcoming Year of the Dragon during this period.
Links to Japanese Sources: https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/a694220a7d426cfadb9ecdf242c53e9806aecf67, https://news.yahoo.co.jp/articles/421eb4f0dde4a2da58be2a371b93d4daa78983a6, and JNTO Press Release (November 15, 2023): 訪日外客数(2023年10月推計値)
#endofyeartravel #newyears #hatsumode #年末年始 #年末年始旅行 #初詣 #お正月
Japan’s official New Year’s holidays only spans from Monday, January 1 ~ Wednesday, January 3, 2024. All three days are considered “bank holidays.”
Coming of Age Day falls on the second Monday in January. It will be celebrated on Monday, January 8, 2024.
Kanto: The Kanto region is located in the eastern part of Honshu, the main island of Japan. It consists of the Tokyo metropolitan area and six prefectures: Ibaraki Prefecture, Tochigi Prefecture, Gunma Prefecture, Saitama Prefecture, Chiba Prefecture and Kanagawa Prefecture. The Kanto region is home to Japan's capital, Tokyo, and about 40 million people, or one-third of the nation's population, and is the political and economic center of the country (https://www.japan.go.jp/regions/kanto.html).
Kinki or Kansai: Located in the central western area of Honshu, the Kansai region consists of the five prefectures of Hyogo, Nara, Mie, Shiga and Wakayama, and the urban prefectures of Osaka and Kyoto. The Kansai region forms the core of western Japan and is the country's largest urban and economic area after the Kanto region (https://www.japan.go.jp/regions/kansai.html).
Tokai or Chubu: The Chubu region is the central area of Honshu, located in the center of the Japanese archipelago. It consists of nine prefectures: Niigata Prefecture, Toyama Prefecture, Ishikawa Prefecture, Fukui Prefecture, Yamanashi Prefecture, Nagano Prefecture, Gifu Prefecture, Shizuoka Prefecture and Aichi Prefecture. The Chubu region is a hub for the automobile, aircraft and other manufacturing industries, as well as being home to many mountainous areas. Japan's tallest mountain, Mount Fuji, is located in the region, as are high mountain ranges including the Hida and Kiso mountains (https://www.japan.go.jp/regions/chubu.html).
Is it just me, or are public holidays an outdated idea, an idea whose time has passed? Bearing in mind all the issues you raise in your - as usual - very interesting essay, wouldn't it just be better to pass a law adding 16 vacation days to everyone's employment contract and let them decide whether or when to hold their family reunions or other celebrations/events? Perhaps some people like overcrowded everything and the associated chaos and expense; but I would rather enjoy my leisure when everyone else is at work!